The really smart thing to do is to continue not testing enough, so as to be able to ignore this exponentially-growing problem for a few more days. You can't hit the ground if you're flying with your eyes closed. It's genius.
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The number of prominent people confirmed infected is inconsistent with the reported number of ~1000 confirmed cases in the US. Real numbers are probably ~10-20x higher. These people aren't likely to be more exposed than others, but they're more likely to have access to testing.
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Also shaking hands with lots of fans/constituents.
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I agree completely with François.
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Is there a way to sensibly estimate this (by good statistical argument), where the true multiplier factor may lie? Given we observe this in a controlled subset, or based on # of “prominent” people.
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US averaging ~1 in 1000 infected now..
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What are your sources/math for saying this?
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I'm guessing much higher: 0.5% or 1% of US. One thing celebrities, politicians etc. have in common with the large groups of people tested as part of a cluster is that these are the only times milder and even subclinical cases are tested widely. 1/2
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It's striking that in these cases the # of positives is simply insane: 20% on Diamond Princess, 50% in the Korean church! The virus has to be very endemic if we're seeing numbers like this whenever we test mild or asymptomatic cases. That's why even 1% of pop. is not absurd. 2/2
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