Alain-Fournier
A lot of the best novels out there were the writer's first novel. Something they were utterly unqualified to write, improvised out of necessity. No one is a writer before writing a novel. But breakthrough works can come from anyone, seemingly qualified or not.
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Or, the bar is highest for unpublished authors.
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Regression to the mean and survivorship bias explains this pretty well. It's the same reason sequels tend to be bad.
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Curious Francois, what did you do before writing Keras?
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The same happens with musicians and other artists. A hypothesis: a “breakthrough” is conditional on high artistic quality (or, at least, the perception thereof) and, because the artist is a newcomer, generates excitement, disruption, etc. The capacity to do so declines with time.
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