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For breakthrough technology, it seems to take about 20 years to go from proof-of-concept to successful real-world deployment at scale (e.g. ICE cars, personal computers, smartphones, self-driving cars…) What 2020 proof-of-concept tech will change the world by 2040?
Another way to look at it: if you stepped out of a time machine in the year 2040, all of the crazy tech you'd see around you would be tech that already exists today in a mostly-working prototype form (probably under the radar) Would have been true for 1990 v 2010 and 2000 v 2020
Probably we will have something similar but with a shorter period of time. I hope quantum computers usable from a large amount of people.
Let's talk about the Mars colony for a second...
There is exponential change going on. What happened in the last 30 will dwarf what comes in the next 30
But still it would be a surprise for most of the people as most of them aren't aware of the crazy tech available now.
It would also have been true for 1985 vs. 2010, and 1960 vs. 1990, and, I'd guess 1850 vs. 1900 - because the time frames for invvention have been contracting, haven't they?
I also wonder how long it may take between a report by a scientific paper of superhuman performance on a particular task and replacement of all human experts on that task with AI. 5, 10, 20 years? More?
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