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Why this number? 20 years would be too close and too relatable -- you may have personal 20-years career plans or get-the-kids-through-college plans. 50 years would be too distant and irrelevant -- you'd be very old, perhaps dead. But 30-35 hits the midpoint between the two.
My own Singularity prediction: I predict that in 2030, futurists will be forecasting the Singularity for 2060-2065.
I’d like to go on record now predicting that in 2030 François will be predicting that in 2065 futurists will be predicting the Singularity in 2100
like everything else, we prob. only can recognize the singularity long after we reached it.
I think "sooner rather than later" (2030?) Part of the point of the Singularity is that it doesn't just meander in gently.
In 1970 Fusion was coming in the eighties, in 1980 it was coming early 2000s, in 1990 it would be here ~2020 and in 2000 the best bet was ~2050. Not sure what the current best prediction is. The singularity is likely to turn out to be vaporware just like fusion was.
You need to know how to make AGI before saying how long it will take.
I find it really funny, when people show a graph of exponential function and then put in an arbitrary place a vertical line labeled singularity.
So useless!
Okay. Lmao
I predict that in 2030 the Singularity will be predicted to be whatever the AI shaping our perceptions wants us to believe.
*if quantum goes well it should be around 2030...
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