You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more
In 1993, Vernor Vinge predicted the Singularity would occur before 2030. In 2011, Ray Kurzweil placed it in 2045. In 2016, Masayoshi Son predicted 2047. People nowadays seem more likely to quote 2050. The common point among these predictions: they're always 30-35 years away.
Why this number? 20 years would be too close and too relatable -- you may have personal 20-years career plans or get-the-kids-through-college plans. 50 years would be too distant and irrelevant -- you'd be very old, perhaps dead. But 30-35 hits the midpoint between the two.
My own Singularity prediction: I predict that in 2030, futurists will be forecasting the Singularity for 2060-2065.
Fascinating.
The simple lifetime predictor on the @SocialSecurity website projects lifetime to be ~(age+30) as you reach middle age.
Beautiful. Everyone is writing checks they know they don’t have to cash.
Henry Petroski (https://cee.duke.edu/faculty/henry-petroski …) identified a similar periodicity in the context of bridge failures. He attributed it to civil engineers' generational memory.
Doesn't this work both ways though? Go back 35 years to 1984 and claim that networked computers will kill magazines, tv and the fax... It would be hard to believe. The only near-certainty is that some life-changing technologies will see incredible progress over the next 30 years.
Average age range for an individuals singularity? :-)
Part your claim is supported by the record of human-level AI, part isn't. From the author of the most recent survey: "The view that everyone gives a similar prediction [of AGI] seems clearly wrong."https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/katja-grace-forecasting-technology/ …
But you're right that compared to earlier predictions "it looks like the median is kind of like 30 years and it sort of remained 30 years in the earlier and the later set"
The Idea, that AI predictions are usually just so far away that the predictor has not died, is called Maes-Garreau law. However, the evidence is weak.pic.twitter.com/HKUhWvoJse
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
