Given the recent progress trajectory of NLP and my natural optimism I think something like this is probably 15-20 years away
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Imagine an algorithm capable of generating a Wikipedia-like encyclopedia from raw sources (e.g. from the Internet minus Wikipedia), at the same level of factual accuracy, edition quality, scope, and resolution. When will this be feasible?
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This poll is about how people perceive NLP progress at this time -- don't see it as a way to actually predict the future. People's perceptions are always wrong
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This is dramatically different from "general intelligence" (and much weaker)
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Wikipedia has plenty of factual mistakes. For instance a lot of Indian history is over taken by the right wing. I think a 'wikipedia quality' aggregator encyclopedia should be doable even now! (And wikipedia has a lot of bots even now)
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Many bots are used on Wikidata for example, which helps connecting resources.
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Uneven intervals is a way to cheat with statistics when doing this kind of questionnaire. Not sure it was intended but as the gap from 15 years to 50 years is so large, it basically forces 15 years to become the "most natural selection".
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This is tricky question! NLP will definitely improve over time, however, quality of raw sources on the Internet will go down. But if we allow AI to read all books written (without paying for it), it may bring up some good new ones!
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1) Why will quality of raw sources go down? 2) Why presume that books written henceforth aren't part of the internet?
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Is the question asking about generating new knowledge or aggregating existing knowledge? This is not clear to me; Wikipedia is sometimes a primary source written by researchers, meaning some pages can’t be mechanized.
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Though hopefully they’d also publish on something with open access, in which case it can be learned.
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