There are lots of blog posts out there claiming to teach you how to use deep learning (typically RNNs) to predict stock prices, FX rates, BTC price, from past price data. Is it actually possible? Well, mostly not. A thread.
Show this thread
-
There was likely a short period of time in the past where using LSTM represented a meaningful advantage. Likewise there was a point in time where a DL trading bot that looked at past BTC prices would have made money. But not anymore, at least not at any meaningful scale.
Show this thread
That doesn't mean that price data doesn't contain information. Only that this information doesn't convert to successful strategies for an average player. It's possible to show models that look like they would be successful, in theory. But you can't deploy them.
-
-
Remember, you need an advantage no one else has (usually a new dataset). It's purely a game of information arbitrage. You can't recycle the same information and models everyone has access to. Unless you know you're special, don't even try. And if you have to ask, you're not.
Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
But you can front run based on earnings report sentiment analysis
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
So if someone trained an LSTM model, it would work well on historical test data upto say 2014 and then stop working since around that period LSTM models would have killed the signal
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.