Saying you will solve general AI is a bit like saying you will solve computer science: generality in artificial intelligence is not a riddle to be solved. It isn't a single problem, it isn't a single technology.
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This belief seems to follow the (highly attractive) cognitive fallacy that there must be one weird secret trick to solve any given hard multidimensional problem that would otherwise require hard work. You can sell a lot of books based on this idea
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The issue/intrigue is not much about whether a weird trick exists to solve so called difficult problem or not, but how so called "easy" problems have had their own tricks to make them easy ! :-)
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Selling a book is a multidimensional problem you seem to have just found a simple answer to! Isn't solving AGI just a tiny bit tougher? So you're almost there...
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Totally. It's a great plot driver. Spiritually related to gnosticism - the belief in a hidden knowledge, that will bring salvation.
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Does AI is going to solve undecidable and P=NP problems?
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And many have. :) There is something deeply unusual about how (un)consciousness works. I agree that it’s a multidimensional problem. I’m optimistic that if we keep peeling back the mystery, we’re going to discover something beautiful.
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There would be one weird secret or threshold that could lead to emergent behavior
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In computer scientists in particular, I think this belief is also because of something I like to call the Turing Fallacy: we know from the universality of Turing machines that any computer can emulate any other. Therefore, any computer can solve any problem.
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Including programming itself, which is just another computer science problem.
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People believe there's a God algorithm. This same set of people will vehemently deny they believe in God.
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I'd like to agree with this, but there is the issue that it seems chimpanzees are almost like humans, and it only took a (in an evolutionary sense) extremely small step to go from rocks to spaceships. If that could be replicated, something extremely dramatic might happen.
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Of course free lunch applies here, but it may be that our universe just happens to have certain very powerful regularities that allow a "lumpy" jump in quality once they are exploited. Judea Pearl esque counterfactual causality seems a likely candidate
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