How much longer do you think the United States will continue to exist?
If you were to consider it peaked in 2000 (highly questionable, it's too early to tell), by symmetry it would take ~200 years to fall (note that this effect is usually a good predictor of the "life" expectancy of anything that is past its prime)
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Of course, if it peaked in 1945...
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And started in 1865...
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What basis does this notion of symmetrical collapse have in history? Is there any precedence you can draw upon to substantiate this, or is it just conjecture?
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I'm not sure of the reasoning used. But in cases where there is very little information and highly variable life spans (countries are a good example) then the current point is most likely (most not very likely) to be close to the mid-point.
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There is a whole field that studies hegemonic decline (and incidentally they've been predicting US decline since the 70s ) https://books.google.com/books/about/Hegemonic_Decline.html?id=qQJZCwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button …
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Lindy effect?
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