In late 2014, I said Go would be solved within the next 5 years (with the expectation that DL would play a role). AlphaGo certainly happened unexpectedly early, but not 20 years early. A few years early.
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No one said 20 that I am aware of FWIW - DeepMind said 10 though (a claim I also am skeptical of since there wasn't a proper survey done, + people's expectations were based on it continuing to be a low investment research area, and expert opinion is known to be unreliable here)
I'm sure no expert actually said 20 years (around 2014-16). But there seems to be a meme or urban legend about it. Posting anything along the lines of "X will take at least Y years" gets multiple replies saying "but AI experts said beating humans at Go was 20 years away in 2016!"
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For what it's worth some of the people who claim exponential AI progress also say "AI experts once thought AI would never beat humans at chess", but I don't think any AI researcher ever said anything like this
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August 9th, 2038. That's the date of "the singularity" or AGI or whatever people will be calling it by then. Can we get back to work now? ;p
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FWIW I refer to this article from the Guardian written in 2006 when I lecture about Go. It states that using searching strategies a la chess/Deep Blue it would take until the 22nd century, and ends with a quote about how Go may never be solved:https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2006/aug/03/insideit.guardianweeklytechnologysection …
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Yeah, to clarify, there were multiple cases of people saying it’d be X years where X > 20, just didn’t recall 20 specifically as a thing
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Well it depends on who is called an “AI expert”. Most of the times these (self-)called experts don’t understand much about the inner workings of the field they rant about...
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Especially true with ”AI” which often acts as a bullshitter honeypot
True for other fields too.
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