In late 2014, I said Go would be solved within the next 5 years (with the expectation that DL would play a role). AlphaGo certainly happened unexpectedly early, but not 20 years early. A few years early.
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In the other direction, through 2015-2017 I was correctly tweeting that L5 self-driving was *not* around the corner. In 2018 I made a bet predicting robotaxis with no safety drivers would not be deployed commercially to the general public before 2023
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If you know what *abilities* (potential) current AI techniques possess and what abilities are required for a given task, you can roughly time short-term applications What you can't do is make 10+ year predictions, because what new abilities will be available is v hard to predict
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But Ray Kurzweil predicted the future with some success. Today we talking to Alexa, Siri. In 10 years, he predicts that the AI will pass the Turing test. Seeing the progress of the NLP, it will happen. you surely doubt his predictions but in 2029 we will talk about it again
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(From advanced pub|priv labs) insider knowledge (on AI topic) is vital to share, thanks. The resulting interpretations bring new perspectives but not certainties, that's fine.
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