In late 2014, I said Go would be solved within the next 5 years (with the expectation that DL would play a role). AlphaGo certainly happened unexpectedly early, but not 20 years early. A few years early.
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In the other direction, through 2015-2017 I was correctly tweeting that L5 self-driving was *not* around the corner. In 2018 I made a bet predicting robotaxis with no safety drivers would not be deployed commercially to the general public before 2023
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If you know what *abilities* (potential) current AI techniques possess and what abilities are required for a given task, you can roughly time short-term applications What you can't do is make 10+ year predictions, because what new abilities will be available is v hard to predict
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L5 is trillion $$$ biz though all big ai institutions avoid that and picking pokers or games instead. What’s your take on this?
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You might be legislated into correctness on this one; policy probably won’t allow human-free before those dates based on public trust, not technical limitation.
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I completely agree when it comes to robotaxis. But, Tesla is doing an end around where they’re slowing eroding manual driving. It’s both a completely irresponsible approach, but at the same time the only way to get mass acceptance since they sell so many vehicles.
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In my family we have a saying when you're claiming praise for something that doesn't really matter: "¿qué quieres, medalla?" ("What do you want, a medal?") Well, here you go:
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Literally on the floor...
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The problem with robotaxis is you can be proven wrong simply by some company deploying them in a very small geofence area. I’d say the biggest roadblock isn’t even technology, but that it’s the ultimate trolley car problem and communities won’t throw the switch.
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