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In late 2014, I said Go would be solved within the next 5 years (with the expectation that DL would play a role). AlphaGo certainly happened unexpectedly early, but not 20 years early. A few years early.
In the other direction, through 2015-2017 I was correctly tweeting that L5 self-driving was *not* around the corner. In 2018 I made a bet predicting robotaxis with no safety drivers would not be deployed commercially to the general public before 2023
If you know what *abilities* (potential) current AI techniques possess and what abilities are required for a given task, you can roughly time short-term applications What you can't do is make 10+ year predictions, because what new abilities will be available is v hard to predict
No one said 20 that I am aware of FWIW - DeepMind said 10 though (a claim I also am skeptical of since there wasn't a proper survey done, + people's expectations were based on it continuing to be a low investment research area, and expert opinion is known to be unreliable here)
I'm sure no expert actually said 20 years (around 2014-16). But there seems to be a meme or urban legend about it. Posting anything along the lines of "X will take at least Y years" gets multiple replies saying "but AI experts said beating humans at Go was 20 years away in 2016!"
I thought starcraft would last longer than it did! MARL seems underexplored atm. Magic the gathering still looks near impossible.
starcraft isn't beat yet. The AI beat Pro-Players on first contact yes and has amazing micro and innovative strategies, but the players had no time to exploit it's weaknessess like how it would react to different scenarios, it was a very limited test. Sorry for sperging out
When will AI be able to read papers, and improve its code base automatically?
The thing is i don't think it works like this. I think it's relative terms. So 2 years early on a 5 year prediction is like 20 years on a 50 year prediction.
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