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Back of the envelope calculation of the progress of AI: I think we're entering the 2nd half of the ramp to maturity. We seem to have 35-40 year long conceptual cycles. It would be reasonable to expect human-level general AI to be about 70-80 years away (this is not a prediction)
Not a prediction because this is way too far away, and way too weakly grounded, to really mean anything
Yeah... plus average human intelligence seems to be declining
I'm curious how your definitions of "it would be reasonable to expect" and "a prediction" differ
I predict we will have an AGI architecture in the next 2 to 5 years (mainly because of progress in my own work ) but it will take I predict 50+ years to get any new born AGI to close to a human level. My model will be the beginning of the end for ML.
Or mine ; )
still, what evidence (however vague or minute) are you basing your guess (?) upon? We know ML-based AI will never get anywhere near human-level intelligence, so what other approaches/methods you have in mind that have led you to make that 80 year guess?
Within next 10 years
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