Not a prediction because this is way too far away, and way too weakly grounded, to really mean anything
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Back of the envelope calculation of the progress of AI: I think we're entering the 2nd half of the ramp to maturity. We seem to have 35-40 year long conceptual cycles. It would be reasonable to expect human-level general AI to be about 70-80 years away (this is not a prediction)
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can we bet over/under?... :)
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Reminding myself what I was saying about AI & Go a few years back, I'll take the under.
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So basically what kurzweil has predicted already.
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So not much farther than fusion then
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Look at the progress in the world. Humans where hunter gatherers for hundreds of thousands of years. People where farmers with basically no progress for tens of thousands of years... And now think about what has happend within the last 200 years... progess is exponential.
End of conversation
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Without some event to "dethrone" ML, we may never reach that level (which implies an ML winter may be required, adding 12-15 years to any est).
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