As @BillGates often says we overestimate the short term and under estimate the long term.
India’s rise from basketcase to a significant economy happened like magic in one generation.
Many people say I am pessimistic about the pace of technology. But my factual track record over the past decade shows I have been slightly overoptimistic. Far less than most of my peers, though. On average, technologists seem to be *wildly* overoptimistic about future progress.
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It's called Amara's law, so Roy Amara might have a better claim over the quote.
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What's your opinion on AGI and ASI?
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AGI could appear tomorrow and take decades to reach human capacity. As soon as an AGI has human capacity it will surpass to ASI. There is no meaningful period of time where a human level AGI cannot learn more to become ASI.
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Now we are at a point where we have radar, satellite comms, headphones and screens. That matter more than AGI, really. Long version:https://www.facebook.com/MohammadTheMerciful/videos/858264197650668 …
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I think most technologists appreciate that progress in the field is typically exponential. Lay people think linearly so over-estimate near future and under-estimate distant future progress. Specialists are more aware of hidden barriers eg regulatory or in-the-wild performance
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It seems to me that technologists and futurists tend to make predictions based on a level of focus and commitment they expect someone else to make.
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