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In the early 1970s, nuclear experts were convinced we would likely have commercial fusion reactors by 2000, and most definitely by 2020. Fusion energy research took off in the 1950s, and the path towards it was already well-understood by 1970.
This is disappointing in the sense that, unlike for AI research, which is dominated by unknown unknowns, fusion energy is a problem where an Apollo-scale project (2-3% of US GDP yearly for a decade) could have made meaningful progress -- perhaps even cracked it.
As far as I remember, in physics there is a joke about a fusion constant t. It describes how long it will take until commercial fusion power will be available. It is t=50 years. Always.
Here is part of the answer. The other part lies in theexcess of optimism of our precessors. Even today there are grand challenges on the way towards a functional and reliable fusion reactor.pic.twitter.com/HUl2dhxv8B
Can you explain the colors here ? This is fascinating !
Also in 1970, nuclear experts were convinced we would likely annihilate each other in a nuclear war. However we've been on a long path of peace ever since. Here's to optimistically hoping that trend extends infinitely into the future.
General Fusion has 66 employees trying to save the world on their own, meanwhile Rivian has 600+ employees working on an electric pickup to greenwash suburban dads.
2050.
You gotta consider their biggest rivals, oil and gas companies and their deep lobbying in Washington
This would be untrue. I recall minimal understanding of the magnetohydrodynamic effects in the Tokamak let alone the microinstabilities that turned out to be wildly unpredictable. As an example, using the Cray at Livermore was state of the art!
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