AI has managed to follow roughly linear progress over the past 70 years thanks to an exponential increase in available resources (computing power, researcher headcount, tooling/networking improvements).
Show this thread
-
Like in other successful scientific fields, the exact rate of exponential resource consumption seems to adjust itself so as to sustain this roughly linear progress. An interesting game of incentives. It's not unlike the Bitcoin mining market.
Show this thread
I think this exponential increase in resources for AI research can be sustained for a few more decades. Meaning that we'll continue to see linear progress at roughly the current pace for a while.
-
-
Don't you expect a tipping point with recursive improvements within that time frame?
-
Needn't be recursive. Just a tipping point where code insight outstrips processing requirements.
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
Do you have a view on the role of quantum computing in this future progress of AI?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Are you counting the increase in number of researchers and engineers too? Or are you just referring to computation?
-
Yes, I'm referring to "computing power, researcher headcount, tooling/networking improvements". That includes Moore's law, the growth in numbers of researchers and engineers, the Internet, compilers, etc. Science is an ever self-improving process.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
And then?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Exponential for decades seems pretty scary. That would consume all society's resources?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Linear on average. Actual progress happens step-by-step. Now we need to wait some resource accumulation for the next step.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.