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AI has managed to follow roughly linear progress over the past 70 years thanks to an exponential increase in available resources (computing power, researcher headcount, tooling/networking improvements).
Like in other successful scientific fields, the exact rate of exponential resource consumption seems to adjust itself so as to sustain this roughly linear progress. An interesting game of incentives. It's not unlike the Bitcoin mining market.
I think this exponential increase in resources for AI research can be sustained for a few more decades. Meaning that we'll continue to see linear progress at roughly the current pace for a while.
What metrics did you use for the claim that we've progressed linearly? Just apriori, facts like NeurIPS attendee numbers don't seem to suggest the field/innovation is progressing at a linear rate.
Resources can refer to people resources too. The number of people attending nips doesn't measure the amount of progress but the amount of human resource being put into it
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