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The problem with futurism is often an inability to distinguish between things that are engineering problems (e.g. a permanent base on Mars), things that are likely theoretically possible but for which there is no known path and certainly no timeline (e.g. a 1000-yr lifespan), ...
...and things that simply don't make sense, that originate from cognitive fallacies -- like time machines, or exponentially self-improving superhuman AI.
Why self-improving AI is cognitive fallacy?
I was about to ask the same question, why?
I fully agree with your point in general, but why do you consider exponentially self-improving superhuman AI as a cognitive fallacy? I don't agree with AI alarmist like @elonmusk or @BillGates that this is any kind of immediate threat, but I would consider it possible in theory
Similar sentiments by this HN commentator https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18407801 …
In my book, fully autonomous cars fall into that last category. People are wildly underestimating how difficult it is.
Which present company would you place at the forefront of self-driving technology?
Another usual mistake: overlooking markets and economic margins. We could have flying drones carrying people around, it's technologically feasible, but other things are more profitable, e.g. Facebook, Uber,…
aren't we the exponentially self-improving human Intelligence?
Not exponentially, sadly
But that's exaclty what sci-fi is made of
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