...and things that simply don't make sense, that originate from cognitive fallacies -- like time machines, or exponentially self-improving superhuman AI.
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The problem with futurism is often an inability to distinguish between things that are engineering problems (e.g. a permanent base on Mars), things that are likely theoretically possible but for which there is no known path and certainly no timeline (e.g. a 1000-yr lifespan), ...
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I'm thinking it's just facism under a communist party skin. an oriental orwell do to speak. very efficient, very nasty.
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“Problem”, or a “feature”? The mind needs a place to ponder the impossible, implausible & impractical before setting out on a path (months, years, decades later) to even get the funding to engineer the practical.
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Is there an actual timeline to a base on Mars? In any case, most futurists I know, even if very excited about life extension, would know the difference between those two. We have a clear research path for life extension, but no clear engineering path yet.
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The first question was meant to provoke the thought that most difficult things like a base on Mars will also require research which, although of a more certain nature, could conceivably lead to unexpected delays.
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Your flaw is in the evolution timeline of this system. Earth took a few billion years to get to the biological intelligence of a trilobyte. It has taken 70 years to easily surpass that in silicon.
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The other flaw is by what is meant by exponential explosion. If AGI IQ only gets to 180 then all it has to do is copy itself and then set about learning all it can for each domain of knowledge. A John Von Neumann for every tiny branch of biology/math/physics that never forgets.
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When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong. – Arthur C Clarke
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