(this is also how corporate empires fall -- IBM and the rise of personal computing, Microsoft and the rise of the web and then mobile...)
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Why do empires fall? A list of recurring patterns. 1) The Game Has Changed -- external macro changes (technological, ecological, economic...) weaken the foundations the empire was built on. E.g. discovery of the Americas and the Cape Route for the Republic of Venice.https://twitter.com/fchollet/status/1016147860063248384 …
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2) Decadence -- gradual loss of the infrastructure or know-how that allowed the empire to expand (historically, often a communication and transportation network that enabled supervisor military command & control)
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3) Internal Strife -- for example the empires of Alexander and Genghis Khan quickly disintegrating into competing factions during succession wars
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4) The Hammer of Fate -- pandemics, earthquakes, fires, volcanic eruptions... In particular, plagues that wipe out 20-50% of the population seem to be a common fixture of the fall of great empires, acting as a trigger or a compounding factor
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It can be abstracted to scaling vs. adaptation. In order to build an empire, one needs to establish a hierarchical network. It scales. The better it gets at scaling, the worse it becomes at adaptation. When externalities change that’s a costly trade off.
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Like accumulating technical debt as you build your solution only to discover that the context has changed when you deliver!
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Loving your random analysis threads, they encourage thinking and healthy discussion. Very refreshing to see this in the timeline from time to time.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Any recommended reads on this systems thinking x organisations sociology x history analysis? Other than Asimov
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I'm currently re-reading Paul Kennedy's Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. It's covering historical analysis with factors that contributed to each nation's rise and fall and trying to find commonalities.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rise_and_Fall_of_the_Great_Powers …
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