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This is possibly the most important thing to learn from human history: progress does not move in one direction. Great civilizations take a while to get started, then follow a few centuries of fast technological development, then enter a plateau, then fall.https://twitter.com/fchollet/status/1014474194136989696 …
We've been in the fast development phase for 600 years. If we never exit it, that would be a first in human history. Arguably, our civilization has changed the rules of the game quite a bit, so it may not follow the historical pattern. But it might -- e.g. ecological collapse
What if progress happens at a level higher than that of specific civilizations? You could just as easily say, "Great people take a while to get started, then follow a few decades of fast development, then enter a plateau, then die."
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