The upside of believing in a long shot is disproportionately greater than the downside. Optimism may not necessarily lead to success, but consistent pessimism definitely hampers it.
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The best opportunities are long shots in a hype-free, relatively pessimistic environment. Those are undervalued, because people will mentally round up a <15% success probability to 0. Unless they have FOMO, in which case they round up 1% to 90.
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Go with the hype-free long shots. But always pass if you sense you have FOMO. The very fact that there's FOMO around something is a strong signal that's it's overvalued.
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That's great approach, but both Keras and xCeption are not according to it, aren't they?
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This is amazing advice. Confirmation of what I've felt for a while but couldn't put into words. Thanks so much!
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That is a really simple but strong message...
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