The upside of believing in a long shot is disproportionately greater than the downside. Optimism may not necessarily lead to success, but consistent pessimism definitely hampers it.
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The best opportunities are long shots in a hype-free, relatively pessimistic environment. Those are undervalued, because people will mentally round up a <15% success probability to 0. Unless they have FOMO, in which case they round up 1% to 90.
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Go with the hype-free long shots. But always pass if you sense you have FOMO. The very fact that there's FOMO around something is a strong signal that's it's overvalued.
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You are right, but missing one thing, IMHO: Hype helps to allocate resources. Leveraging additional human brains helps to make long shots "shorter". If you want something done: find a business model for it, convince people to work for you at it. Hype may help in the latter. – at Intelligent Processing Solutions
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couldnt agree more. would you say there is FOMO in deep learning, ML, AI at the moment? ;)
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I love the numbers and it explains the concept. Coming from you there might be real research behind the bias numbers, if there is I’d like to read it. Footnote?
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This is completely made up, sorry...
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