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The upside of believing in a long shot is disproportionately greater than the downside. Optimism may not necessarily lead to success, but consistent pessimism definitely hampers it.
The best opportunities are long shots in a hype-free, relatively pessimistic environment. Those are undervalued, because people will mentally round up a <15% success probability to 0. Unless they have FOMO, in which case they round up 1% to 90.
Go with the hype-free long shots. But always pass if you sense you have FOMO. The very fact that there's FOMO around something is a strong signal that's it's overvalued.
Yes. I am building a startup for students. It is a big project. I am certain I can do it. I know some people may laugh, but eventually I will be so far ahead, I will not hear them. Enthusiasm really "does pull the switch."
Nice tweets today, Trump Derangement Syndrome 
By the way, thanks for Keras
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