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Prikvačeni tweet
In this piece for
@cgpolicy I argue: - Killing Soleimani should be judged by its specific goals, not one's views of 'maximum pressure'. - Iran is geopolitically strong but has few wise escalation options. -The US need not retaliate - it's made its point.https://www.cgpolicy.org/articles/killing-soleimani-calculating-the-cost-of-retaliation/ …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
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You can do those two things together if the debt restructuring & budget financing are planned & supervised by the IMF according to a full economic reform plan, taking into consideration balancing budget, bank recaps & protecting small depositors. Is anyone calling them yet?
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"Lebanon’s economic collapse is a further indication that the postwar model has reached its end. Capital inflows, particularly those from the Gulf, that sustained state spending have dropped. "
@mahamyahya writes.https://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/80933Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Noteworthy that the Syrian regime, which is quite adept at managing armed opposition (not to be confused with good at war), has literally never figured out how simple economics works. Here's a snapshot from
@Dannymakkisyriahttps://www.mei.edu/publications/damascus-battles-economic-collapse-syrian-pound-plummets …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
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US government says that ISIS command control is intact, despite the half-decade campaign against it and the killing of almost all its known leaders and commanders. That’s an important assessment.https://twitter.com/ruslantrad/status/1225084674919276544 …
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"The Palestinians need a viable state with full sovereignty, and the Israelis cannot compromise on the physical security of their state...Support from Arab regimes that are either relatively uninvolved or deeply troubled cannot replace Palestinian buy-in."https://www.cgpolicy.org/articles/unfreezing-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/ …
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"Trumpism, as a political ideology, will endure after this president leaves office. But Trumpism, as a political style, is attainable only by Trump" Good read from
@GrahamDavidA in@TheAtlantic:https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/trumps-wildly-theatrical-state-union/606118/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
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A year of frequent mass protests indicates Georgians are ready for a change. But the leading opposition party is also widely reviled. Georgia seems to need to break out of its bipolar political deadlock, but what are its chances? Me for
@ForeignPolicy:https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/04/georgia-elections-independents/ …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
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The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is principally about geography & the anxieties it fuels. Any peace deal that doesn't lead to both Palestinian sovereignty & Israeli security will fail. My latest w/
@faysalitani in@CGlobalPolicy's#Navigator: http://www.cgpolicy.org/articles/unfreezing-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/ …@YowPDIcafepic.twitter.com/1Sn8aG0n8Z
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/Thread/ Updated statistics of Assads regime armor losses (based n visual evidence) since the start of the Syrian Civil war: 2011: 20 2012: 543 2013: 516 2014: 398 2015: 315 2016: 317 2017: 248 2018: 78 2019: 75 2020: 28 -------------- total: 2538
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Primaries or not, the Israel-Palestine conflict somehow goes on.
@KamranBokhari and I argue that any peace plan that ignores geography and places all bets on Arab regimes will fail.@CGlobalPolicyhttps://www.cgpolicy.org/articles/unfreezing-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/ …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
As any Islamist will tell you, if you go down this path there will always be someone to outflank and out-virtue you in return. A race to the bottom.https://twitter.com/mattduss/status/1224898989985796096 …
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Lebanon is showing the same old mix of cut-throat profiteering and dogged solidarity, exacerbated by the crisis. At a hospital, say, some providers sell old stocks with an arbitrary premium, while some doctors treat their patients for less, although their own costs have rocketed
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This presents the best case I've read yet for a Buttigieg nomination. More generally Vox has done a number of these for other candidates as well, mostly pretty good.https://www.vox.com/2020/2/4/21121636/pete-buttigieg-beat-trump-win-2020-election-primaries …
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In politics as in relationships, you always go for the opposite of your ex. So the question is who’s more the opposite to Trump? Bernie or Mayor Pete? Both can clearly claim it in different ways. Heighten the contradictions as say Lenin and
@shadihamid !Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
In this analysis for
@cgpolicy@NeilPHauer explains that "An array of political and strategic factors will complicate Russia’s attempts to take advantage of increased tensions between the U.S. and Iraqi governments"https://www.cgpolicy.org/articles/russias-influence-in-iraq-structurally-limited-geopolitically-constrained/ …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
For Lebanon’s Shiites, a Dilemma: Stay Loyal to Hezbollah or Keep Protesting?https://nyti.ms/392KCuL
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1/ So now that we got the draft Policy Statement released, here is an overview on what i would have expected to see in a proper Policy draft. ( i am sorry if there are too many numbers, i know it makes gvt uneasy and they prefer poetry)
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Terrifying to think that this is how the world works.https://twitter.com/BrianTNichols/status/1224584757356515334 …
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At the risk of provoking more acrimony I am sharing Bilal Saab's follow-up on his previous controversial Lebanon analysis -- not least because I caught almost as much flak for sharing it as he did for writing it :)https://www.mei.edu/blog/lebanons-inconvenient-truths-brief-rejoinder …
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U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker says US military aid to Lebanon will continue. Some US officials oppose the aid & will push for its cessation, given that Lebanon's new govt is widely seen as very pro-Hezbollah.https://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2020/Feb-01/500362-schenker-expect-pushback-against-us-aid-to-lebanon.ashx …
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