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fare's profile
François-René Rideau
François-René Rideau
François-René Rideau
@fare

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François-René Rideau

@fare

Cybernetician, building liberty, love and understanding (for Computing see @ngnghm, for Cryptocurrency see @phanaero)

Here and now
fare.tunes.org
Joined May 2007

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    1. Perry E. Metzger‏ @perrymetzger Feb 5
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      Perry E. Metzger Retweeted Nassim Nicholas Taleb

      This may be of interest to @patrissimo and others who do not currently take the Wuhan virus seriously. Just because any particular pandemic is unlikely to be as severe as the 1918 flu doesn’t mean all of them won’t.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208 …

      Perry E. Metzger added,

      Nassim Nicholas TalebVerified account @nntaleb
      HOW TO REACT TO PANDEMICS can be dowloaded belo @normonics, @yaneerbaryam #ChinaCoronaVirus #China https://academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-_Coronavirus_A_Note … pic.twitter.com/WH79rULG9d
      Show this thread
      2 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Patri Friedman‏ @patrissimo Feb 5
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      Replying to @perrymetzger

      Just because some year, some non-seasonal flu may be dangerous, does not mean it is correct to worry yourself into a frenzy every year. Many bad things are possible. Some will happen. There are too many for us all to worry about all of them.

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    3. Perry E. Metzger‏ @perrymetzger Feb 6
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      Replying to @patrissimo

      There are several distinct strawmen there. I am not “worried into a frenzy”. The current situation is indeed unusually dangerous though not yet certain to cause serious trouble worldwide. There also are things one can do that are proportionate, and the risk for me is very high.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Perry E. Metzger‏ @perrymetzger Feb 6
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      Replying to @perrymetzger @patrissimo

      Most importantly, you are following cargo cult reasoning. Just because the public misjudges many risks does not mean all things people worry about are unimportant. You are failing to consider the individual case based on a realistic model, which makes you just as likely to fail.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Perry E. Metzger‏ @perrymetzger Feb 6
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      Replying to @perrymetzger @patrissimo

      One should neither follow the crowd nor be a contrarian. Both are unreasonable. One should think through things carefully on one’s own. So far, you have just expressed contrarian platitudes. The only model-based reasoning you presented was false. (And you never retracted it.)

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Patri Friedman‏ @patrissimo Feb 6
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      Replying to @perrymetzger

      Do you really have so few concerns that you can investigate all of them and reason from first principles? It's my belief that I could trivially create a list of concerns as serious & plausible as coronavirus that would take one person a year to get up to speed on.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Perry E. Metzger‏ @perrymetzger Feb 6
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      Replying to @patrissimo

      No, I don't investigate all possible risks. However, if people around me that are smart and not given to exaggeration start worrying about something, it is usually worth updating my priors. They might be wrong, of course, but you can't assume they're wrong without checking.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. François-René Rideau‏ @fare Feb 6
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      Replying to @perrymetzger @patrissimo

      Even smart people can be manipulated. Actually, there are memetic parasites specialized in manipulating smart people, to whom stupider people are immune.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      François-René Rideau‏ @fare Feb 6
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      Replying to @fare @perrymetzger @patrissimo

      So before I update my prior with smart people's opinions, I wonder: do they believe that because it's genuinely their individual specialty, or are they just amplifying an opinion received in an echo chamber for similar memetic targets?

      10:14 AM - 6 Feb 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Patri Friedman
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Perry E. Metzger‏ @perrymetzger Feb 6
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          Replying to @fare @patrissimo

          That's a reasonable question. But it still requires analyzing the specific case to come up with a reasonable model, and not engaging in naive empiricism. Otherwise, you end up like the Turkey who majored in statistics and drew the wrong conclusion about the farmer.pic.twitter.com/hShPyQTwk6

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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