Infiltration, sabotage, mass demonstrations, elections, political violence, etc., work well for the purposes of destruction, but not of construction. That's why the enemies of civilization can advance their purposes through those means, but the builders of civilization cannot.
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Replying to @harmonylion1 @bitstein
What does an "idea market" even mean???
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Glad you asked! I wrote a clear, concise article explaining it simply and in many different ways!https://medium.com/@harmonylion1/decentralizing-the-search-for-truth-using-financial-markets-648bf4408b5c …
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Replying to @harmonylion1 @bitstein
I'm familiar with
@RobinHanson's prediction markets; are your idea markets a variant of it? Your article doesn't make it obvious what exactly the participants bet on. What are the objective exit conditions to the bet, beside finding a bigger sucker to buy your position from you?1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Idea markets do not predict future events, they curate existing knowledge. The game mechanics can (and should) vary according to the content type — long-term (philosophies, historical narratives) vs medium-term (inventions) vs short-term (breaking news), etc.
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Can you describe working game mechanics that don't have perverse incentives? How do you reward knowing what others don't, rather than just predicting beliefs disconnected from reality?
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This may be the key — predicting beliefs disconnected from reality is not a problem. $ invested in falsehoods creates a market for superior ideas to disrupt them. Losing money on falsehood incentivizes people to reconsider. The market cycle uses $ to strengthen healthy self-doubt
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WHAT ARE THE MECHANISMS? How do people win or lose money? How can I bank on Jehovah's witnesses believing the End of The World is near, and how can they bank on my disbelieving them, depending on who's right?
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That said, I want to be clear — NOT A PREDICTION MARKET. Therefore, it doesn’t really matter who’s right. What matters is this: which POV, given a playing field leveled by financial incentives (instead of skewed by biases), convinces more people over time. Being right helps.
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I still see no actual mechanism. Please exhibit the algorithm that decides how the money is distributed, and argue why it can't be trivially gamed.
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Algorithms overcomplicate and give rise to avoidable debate — market incentives as in stock or commodity investing seem sufficient. It can be trivially gamed as well as NASDAQ, and this is by design. Open to ideas for improvement, but I’m starting to doubt you have any.
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