— My climate model predicts that temperatures will increase exponentially. — Oh noes! That means that within a few years, the Earth will be hotter than the Sun, than the Galactic Core, than the Big Bang! [1/3]
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— No, that's ridiculous. My model will stop applying long before that happens. — So some phenomenon will stop the temperature increase well before the Earth reaches the temperature of the Sun? — Of course! [2/3]
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— So this phenomenon is stronger than the warming phenomenon that you have modeled? — Eventually, yes. — And your model has no consideration for this phenomenon and how it works? — ... No. — So you haven't actually modeled the climate, have you? [3/3]
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Replying to @fare
Who on the earth would think that the temperature would rise exponentially?
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Replying to @fare
What hockey stick are you referring to? The famous one from the climate debate does nowhere mention exponentiality (at least not on the wikipedia page). A sharp rise over a short period does not in itself claim exponentiality.
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Replying to @clynbech
The famous one is an exponential, that necessarily emerges from any model with linear differential equations. If you prolong into the future or into the past, the very hypotheses ensure exponentially increasing or decreasing outcomes. The absurdity of baked into the model.
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Replying to @fare
What model are you referring to? The climate hockey stick is not a model, it is an observation.
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The observations are a cloud of thousands of data points. The hockey stick is a curve obtained by interpolating those points with various dubious fudge factors into a specific linear differential model, then prolonging the inevitable exponential a few years into the future.
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