Political scientist @CSISIndonesia • Military change, civil-military relations, regional security • 
• Indo-Pacific • @SyracuseU PhD • @FulbrightID alum
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Some thoughts on the latest Chinese encroachment of Indonesian waters (Natunas' EEZ) For those hoping for "the straw that broke the camel's back" moment in Indonesia-China relations, be prepared to be disappointed.
Yes, MOFA public statements have been more assertive than usual (see e.g. https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/01/01/indonesia-lodges-strong-protestagainst-china-for-trespassing-poaching-in-natunas.html … and https://en.tempo.co/read/1290040/indonesia-rejects-chinas-claims-over-south-china-sea …)
This makes sense given the scale of the incident (tho keep in mind the high domestic pol temp over 
ties in recent weeks)
The Indonesian military also appears to be seeking to show its flag a little bit as well. https://twitter.com/EvanLaksmana/status/1213087825169506304?s=20 … While the coast guard (BAKAMLA) is seeking to increase its patrolling activities in the North Natuna Sea https://bisnis.tempo.co/read/1290841/diklaim-cina-ri-tambah-kapal-patroli-di-perairan-natuna …
https://twitter.com/Puspen_TNI/status/1213070150921965568 …But consider the relatively muted response of the fisheries ministry (who was talking abt VN vessels instead https://news.detik.com/berita-jawa-barat/d-4843947/pencurian-ikan-di-natuna-menteri-edhy-3-kapal-vietnam-ditangkap …). Remember how Susi used call what China was doing a crime? (https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2169153/china-calls-it-fishing-indonesia-calls-it-crime-pudjiastuti …).
Also consider defense minister Prabowo's response: "I think we can find a good solution. China after all is one of our "best friends" (negara sahabat)".https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20200103194730-20-462276/prabowo-buka-suara-soal-china-dan-natuna …
And Luhut Pandjaitan, Jokowi's super minister, is saying "we shouldn't make a big deal of Chinese coast guard presence. After all, we don't have enough ships to patrol the area". https://money.kompas.com/read/2020/01/03/204900626/kapal-asing-marak-di-natuna-luhut-enggak-usah-dibesar-besarin … (He's in charge of maritime affairs and investment inc BRI projects)
So once again, when the hour calls for a coherent and consistent response to Chinese hegemonic behavior, Indonesia only partially delivers--even though we have the full weight of UNCLOS and international law.
Back in 2016 (when the first major incident w China under Jokowi happened) 
Why we see the inconsistencies in the Natunas: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/04/28/heres-why-jakarta-doesnt-push-back-when-china-barges-into-indonesian-waters/ …
What they say about foreign policy: https://www.newmandala.org/jakarta-left-all-at-sea-by-island-clash-with-china/ …
How to deal with China next:https://www.thejakartapost.com/academia/2016/10/12/insight-how-do-we-engage-a-hegemonic-china.html …
Indonesia needs a new strategy to deal with China--both on the Natunas and great power politics more broadly--not "economic diplomacy". Indonesia needs to expand its strategic toolkit--international law is necessary but insufficient. <end thread>
A bit of an anti-climax
Unfortunately. If only we had coherence and consistency for just about a month after any major incident...
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