after spending billions of euros and deploying the bundeswehr to contact trace, we know not even bars or poorly ventilated dining have anything to do with this. Here’s a mystery: 1) How is it actually spreading? Nobody interested in this.
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Replying to @eugyppius1 @stoneagenathan
Here’s another one: 2) Why is the parallel yet totally independent hospital /nursing home pandemic (the source of all the mortality) never addressed by any government policies, even remotely, at all?
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Replying to @eugyppius1
Nursing homes are about half of the fatalities in the U.S. Contact tracing has found bars to be particularly problematic.https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/08/14/902271822/13-states-make-contact-tracing-data-public-heres-what-they-re-learning …
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Replying to @stoneagenathan
I don’t know how to interpret the US data. In Germany, you’re required to give contact details basically everywhere you go. Work, school, restaurants, clubs, gym. No voluntary withholding, substantial penalties for lying. I’ve posted extensively about this data.
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Replying to @eugyppius1 @stoneagenathan
The whole gastro scene is negligible. It’s one of the least common infection categories. Most infections before vaxx were part of what seems to be a nursing home / hospital independent pandemic cycle. Then you have household infections. Distant third is workplace …
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Replying to @eugyppius1
Are you saying in Germany? Aside from nursing homes, anywhere inside with poor ventilation and people talking is where this thing spreads. Bars, weddings, offices, daycare, etc.
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Replying to @stoneagenathan
yes, in Germany. you’re telling me *what the theory is*. I’m telling you *what the hard-won data is* the German data suggest that you get Corona in a poorly ventilated indoor space only if you have bad luck or you’re in there for hours and hours with an infected person.
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Replying to @stoneagenathan
the link you gave me? Louisiana has traced a lot of infections to “bars”. that’s all I see. in similar conversations i’ve been given studies that show correlations between people who like to party and people who have Sars2 antibodies …
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Replying to @eugyppius1 @stoneagenathan
… is Louisiana subjecting bars to particular contact-tracing rules? these things are very easily confounded, so it’s hard to know. similar with the correlational studies, people who like to party have a lot of contacts, not just in restaurants.
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I have very high priors against your position, because I’ve lived in a part of the world that basically shut down everything that was poorly ventilated or indoors, for *6 months*, and saw no noticeable effect on the infection curve. I don’t know how else a theory can be falsified
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