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That *was* true, at points in history. The problem is that such selection effects should’ve already kicked in if that’s true, considering how long contraception has been available
The higher fertility of (mostly religious) conservatives is an undeniable political force, it’s why the predicted triumph of a wholly secular leftist society never quite comes about. These dynamics need more time.
I've never been convinced by this argument, although it's plausible. France was the first country to go through the demographic transition, the the TFR of the native French is still mediocre and below replacement.
Moreover, when people make that argument they're assuming that the current environment(where the "selection" supposedly occurs) will remain stable. I'm convinced in the past 2 decades alone social media has had a negative effect on the TFR, although I have no proof.
Fertility doesn’t matter if 9/10 children attend public school
I hold the very unpopular view that nurture (including schooling) counts for almost nothing in longer-term. With caveats, obv: Convincing kids to sterilise themselves will not come out in the wash, which is likely one reason the trans stuff is getting pushed so hard.
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