How do you explain India ? Incredibly dramatic fall in the last 3 weeks for example. Agree lockdowns wouldn’t have done anything once wave was underway.
The models call for an *increase* of cases w/ reopening, but this just doesn‘t really happen. The extremely mild uptake in the UK is said to be part of this effect. In fact it seems to be something else, namely an eco of the Indian wave within unvaxxed immigrant communities.https://twitter.com/eugyppius1/status/1402481268667957248 …
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vaccination wave
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Models, otherwise known as making shit up. Like in macroecon: here’s a model that resembles no economy ever, from which I derive policy implications for actual economies. Those who can, do; those who can’t, model.
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