eugyppius

because of stochastic transmission factors (the highly uneven distribution of R), the genetic derivation of dominant local non-VOC lineages doesn’t mean much.

What a load of rubbish. We didn't have a Spanish variant in the UK before last summer and then prior to Kent variant was dominant certainly here jn Wales.

you think without travel to spain over the summer, there would’ve been no winter wave in the UK?

I did not say that. I said the variant in the Wales if not the rest of the UK changed as a consequence of the summer holidays.

I will spell it out for you: Travel brought Spanish and other lineages to Wales. In the fall Corona season started, and cases surged. Because of accidental random factors, the imported lineages did most of the replicating.

Other regions had the same fall surge with other lineages. Holidays don’t cause case spikes.

So a holiday in India doesn't import a more spreadable variant into the UK? Yes we were going to get rising infections after unlocking but international travel has now caused this to be a faster growth curve than would otherwise have been. You are simply wrong.

the Indian variant is already in the UK, in fact it’s everywhere. if it has a transmissibility advantage, no amount of travel restrictions will stop it once it is introduced, or even meaningfully influence its trajectory. that ship has sailed.