Pretty amazing how official Corona mythology is so consistently false: -Holidays cause case spikes -Children are the drivers of the pandemic -Restaurants & public transit are dangerous All these things remain the focus of policy & they are totally irrelevant.
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Replying to @eugyppius1 @RealJoelSmalley
You can't deny the genetic fingerprint of covid pre Kent variant was Spanish following the resending over the summer period. Holidays do make a difference.
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Replying to @cptn_retrospect @RealJoelSmalley
because of stochastic transmission factors (the highly uneven distribution of R), the genetic derivation of dominant local non-VOC lineages doesn’t mean much.
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Replying to @eugyppius1 @RealJoelSmalley
What a load of rubbish. We didn't have a Spanish variant in the UK before last summer and then prior to Kent variant was dominant certainly here jn Wales.
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Replying to @cptn_retrospect @RealJoelSmalley
you think without travel to spain over the summer, there would’ve been no winter wave in the UK?
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Replying to @eugyppius1 @RealJoelSmalley
I did not say that. I said the variant in the Wales if not the rest of the UK changed as a consequence of the summer holidays.
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Replying to @cptn_retrospect @RealJoelSmalley
I will spell it out for you: Travel brought Spanish and other lineages to Wales. In the fall Corona season started, and cases surged. Because of accidental random factors, the imported lineages did most of the replicating.
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Other regions had the same fall surge with other lineages. Holidays don’t cause case spikes.
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Replying to @eugyppius1 @RealJoelSmalley
So a holiday in India doesn't import a more spreadable variant into the UK? Yes we were going to get rising infections after unlocking but international travel has now caused this to be a faster growth curve than would otherwise have been. You are simply wrong.
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the Indian variant is already in the UK, in fact it’s everywhere. if it has a transmissibility advantage, no amount of travel restrictions will stop it once it is introduced, or even meaningfully influence its trajectory. that ship has sailed.
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