I reject modelling as a basis for making decisions because I believe it to be a form of nonsense shamanism.https://twitter.com/LordUrquhart/status/1397581906414346243 …
The models, which have all catastrophically failed, are circular constructions, wherein the modellers decree that the pandemic is controlled by a limited number of variables, and then arbitrarily assign these variables a share of the reproduction number.
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Of course this always fails, but the models can be saved in retrospect, as the modellers return to whatever happened and adjust the parameters so the models accord with past infections. In Germany, for example, all the models predicted a huge spike around Easter ...
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... which never happened. So the quack regime-adjacent modellers invented an "Easter effect" (caused by the Christian faithful succumbing to gvt propaganda & not celebrating Easter), an additional made-to-fit variable that saved all their other unfounded assumptions.
End of conversation
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