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And it's never "we're in the clear for the next little while" too, exponential growth always explodes starting tomorrow in these models. We cannot wait for actual cases to start rising to "lock down" it has to be done immediately regardless of what the actual reality is
and whatever’s happening right now, they’re always about to be ExPONEntiALLY worse. they never call any kind of proximate peak, it’s either curved lines flying up to infinity or some unfathomable summit 3 months from now.
But with a secondary line thats a "if public health measures are enhanced" that goes to near zero, as if mask mandates and bar/gym closures sway the R0 enough to be the difference between having 100 cases and 10,000 cases a month from now.
Yep ... and the health services are *about* to be overwhelmed. They never actually are overwhelmed. But they are right there on the cusp ...
Never has complete and total catastrophe ever been about to happen for so long in so many places at once
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