& yeah same about being cautious about it.
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tail risk is v4xx now lmao try and get that take from them tho
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yeah, policy responses also have tail risks, too, which destroy this whole point. for example, some jurisdictions that overreacted with containment, justified this overreaction in retrospect by setting acceptable risk standards so low ...
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... that now it seems lockdowns would be justified every worse-than-average flu season. certainly they will remain a threat for years and years, as long as Corona remains a driver of winter mortality. Even a 1918-level pandemic would be less destructive than this.
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I.e. The New Normal™
End of conversation
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