It's stupid b/c I'll bet you flu testing is below avg., & ppl who self-report flu incidences w/o a test via themselves or their physician are either calling it Covid or simply aren't reporting, and the "self/physician reports" are obv the main contributors to flu diagnosis counts
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Replying to @MusingsOfYouth @soncharm
Its probably real. Cold and flu medicine sales were way down.
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Replying to @aguy123452 @soncharm
That's probably b/c ppl resolved themselves to the notion that those wouldn't work b/c they have Covid, and people were not going to leave their house if they were sick, which is usually when cold/flu meds are purchased--there didn't used to be stigma against this.
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Replying to @MusingsOfYouth @soncharm
Is that probable or wildly speculative? People had bad cold/flu symptoms and didn't want nyquil because they assumed congestion treatment was targeted at a particular virus? Sales in late 2020 were down 46% from 2019.
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Replying to @aguy123452 @soncharm
Ppl weren't going out to buy congestion treatment when they had congestion for fear of transmitting to others--the reason why is hardly speculative--and ppl don't typically go buy cold/flu meds til they already have cold/flu, OR they already have it and won't leave to get more.
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Replying to @MusingsOfYouth @soncharm
You think they did in fact, have the flu at the same rates as always, just bought half as much medicine while the CDC, using a completely unrelated method estimates a similar drop in flu? Seems unlikely to me, but I can't prove you're wrong.
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Replying to @aguy123452 @soncharm
I think ppl by and large weren’t going to the doc’s office if they were alrdy sick and weren’t going to stores to buy flu meds if they were already sick. With a flu-like illness going around you shouldn’t have seen something so massive as 46% dropoff. CDC flu ests. arent rigorous
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We know from flu surveillance that flu is basically gone, or present at extremely low incidences, everywhere, except for a few places in the tropics. The catch is, it’s even gone in places without lockdowns or significant measures (Japan).
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Replying to @eugyppius1 @MusingsOfYouth and
What’s more, flu surveillance in many countries also tracks other respiratory virus, like RSV, Adenovirus, etc. Many of these *do* seem more frequent in places with less containment, and more seldom in places with heavier containment.
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Replying to @eugyppius1 @MusingsOfYouth and
The one exception is rhinoviruses, which seem totally unaffected almost everywhere and circulate as in prior years. In summary: Other respiratory viruses do seem affected by measures; flu is different, it has disappeared almost worldwide independent of measures.
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Flu also sends other signals, like winter hospitalisation & mortality spikes in young children, which are also gone, so it’s a good bet there is as good as no flu right now.
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