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From @ingo_keck, analysis showing the entire 3rd wave in Germany is correlated tightly with vaccine doses
Blue: 7-day average cases
Green: (rescaled) vaxx doses 17 days in future
Basically, since the 2nd week of February, case numbers are 3-7% of vaxx doses from 17 days agopic.twitter.com/pknlxYtw6q
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Previously I'd posited a much more direct connection, rising cases within 48 hours of vaccination. But this is vastly more plausible and casts totally new light on the phenomenon. The 17-day delay % high numbers (3-7%) suggest that some subset of the vaxxed ...
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...are made contagious (or more contagious?) by the vaccine. These are people who either have persistent asymptomatic infections, and are made symptomatic spreaders; or they are made uniquely more susceptible to infection for a time following the vaccine.
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17 days are then enough time for secondary and tertiary infections from the vaccinated contagious to make their wany into the statistics.
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Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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This is really weird and not even sure i understand. Just for my understanding: the correlation shown is between number of doses on day T and new-positive-cases on day T+17?
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Yes, since mid-February until this moment, case numbers are 3-7% of vaccine doses administered 17 days before those numbers were reported.
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Any guesses as to what the mechanism would be? Spurious positives?
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If there's any natural variability in the speed of a person's immune response to vaccine and that immune response is what's causing increased spread, a narrow temporal spike of vaccinations should produce a much wider spike of infections weeks later. Right?
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