eugyppius

Why lockdowns do not work in one tweet: Rapid antigen test numbers from a district with 124k residents. In 8k tests (6,45% of the population) since before Easter week, 21 were antigen positive, of which 7 were PCR confirmed asymptomatic/ presymptomatic positive for SarsCov2.https://twitter.com/infect_prevent/status/1382786193071468546 …

So let‘s just assume the asymptomatic/ presymptomatic positive rate is 7/8000 - 0,09% of the population. Remember that the reproduction number is unevenly distributed, which means *most positives infect nobody* and most of the spreading is done by a few outliers.

So you lock down an entire district of 124k people, because maybe 100 of them are pre- or asymptomatic positive. Even without a lockdown, most of these people wouldn‘t have infected anybody; and the chances the outlier superspreaders break through your general lockdown ...