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Why lockdowns do not work in one tweet: Rapid antigen test numbers from a district with 124k residents. In 8k tests (6,45% of the population) since before Easter week, 21 were antigen positive, of which 7 were PCR confirmed asymptomatic/ presymptomatic positive for SarsCov2.https://twitter.com/infect_prevent/status/1382786193071468546 …
8000 Tests
21 Ag-POC-Test positiv
7 in PCR bestätigt (1/3 der positiven Ag-POC-Tests)
0,0875% der Getesteten waren SARS-CoV-2 positiv
So let‘s just assume the asymptomatic/ presymptomatic positive rate is 7/8000 - 0,09% of the population. Remember that the reproduction number is unevenly distributed, which means *most positives infect nobody* and most of the spreading is done by a few outliers.
So you lock down an entire district of 124k people, because maybe 100 of them are pre- or asymptomatic positive. Even without a lockdown, most of these people wouldn‘t have infected anybody; and the chances the outlier superspreaders break through your general lockdown ...
... which targets almost entirely people who are not even infected or who are but will infect nobody, are quite high. This cannot be emphasised enough: Lockdowns target average people and average behaviours. The pandemic is driven by outlier people with outlier behaviours.
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