Almost all Corona infections happen indoors, and yet every country enamoured of mass containment insists that people spend inordinate amounts of time indoors and places heavy restrictions on going outside.
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Replying to @eugyppius1
This can't be that hard to understand. It's not that going outside is more risky, but rather that people who go outside tend to also enter enclosed space with people of other groups. It's about maintaining small exposure capsules.
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Replying to @PaddysPubKey @eugyppius1
As an intuition pump, imagine everybody stayed home for 14 days at the same time. No exceptions. The pandemic would be over in two weeks. Why? Because you can at most infect those in the same household, and you either die or recover with immunity.
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Replying to @PaddysPubKey
As an intuition pump, consider that this is an airborne virus that spreads within apartment buildings, from apartment to apartment. It would not be gone in two weeks.
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Replying to @eugyppius1
Actually, it would, as long as people did not leave those buildings. It's just a larger capsule. This point isn't really controversial, mind you. Quarantining works. It's just super hard to enforce, and it's inhumane. But everyone agrees it's effective. Worked in Wuhan...
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Replying to @PaddysPubKey
It’s not gone from the building in 2 weeks. It spreads from apartment to apartment slowly. You need months of mass-population quarantine, and it couldn’t be total, given the need for basic services. Wuhan cases were in decline almost from the day the Hubei lockdown was called
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Replying to @eugyppius1
That's kind of besides the point, as it's a thought experiment. If you're unable to properly isolate people in their apartments then just consider the building the unit of isolation and increase the isolation duration. Experiment still works.
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Time is the entire point. If everyone held their breath for 3 weeks, this disease would also be over.
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