Almost all Corona infections happen indoors, and yet every country enamoured of mass containment insists that people spend inordinate amounts of time indoors and places heavy restrictions on going outside.
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As an intuition pump, imagine everybody stayed home for 14 days at the same time. No exceptions. The pandemic would be over in two weeks. Why? Because you can at most infect those in the same household, and you either die or recover with immunity.
As an intuition pump, consider that this is an airborne virus that spreads within apartment buildings, from apartment to apartment. It would not be gone in two weeks.
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As further intuition pump, consider that huge part of mortality, half in Germany, involves ppl in institutional care, who are already in isolation & appear to acquire the disease in hospitals and spread it among themselves, independently of everyone you would lock in apartments.
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Actually, it would, as long as people did not leave those buildings. It's just a larger capsule. This point isn't really controversial, mind you. Quarantining works. It's just super hard to enforce, and it's inhumane. But everyone agrees it's effective. Worked in Wuhan...
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It’s not gone from the building in 2 weeks. It spreads from apartment to apartment slowly. You need months of mass-population quarantine, and it couldn’t be total, given the need for basic services. Wuhan cases were in decline almost from the day the Hubei lockdown was called
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