eugyppius

it won't be a "close call" new variants will arise that defeat the vaccines, that's a 100% given, that's how viruses work ... they form a delicate equilibrium with their host population and modulate their own form to adapt to its immunity! duh!https://twitter.com/bhrenton/status/1372364042334011393 …

that said, so long as the virus has important topological similarities, people exposed to the vaccine or a strain of the virus itself, should be less likely to die of subsequent strains as the immune system is on the lookout for it

also, if the virus mutates enough that its mechanism for infection and replication fundamentally changes (e.g. it no longer goes after ACE2 because spike protein is totally different), then it may cease to be so deadly at all ... or I guess it could become more deadly...

hard to say, only time will tell...

I think assuredly, there will be a point at which the virus has been forced to trade significant function for immune escape, and is no longer very serious for anyone. Also a common pattern with respiratory viruses seems to be repeated exposure to different strains as a kid ...

... so adults have sufficient resistance that only the immuno-compromised are ever really threatened.

yes, I agree the likely outcome is, like spanish influenza, the natural immune resistance in the population creates a stable equilibrium where the virus circulates without harming many people at all