While the 2020 "reflation narrative" of the asset management industry looks OBSOLETE, we have SHIFTED our fund more in line with the disruptive impacts of the #Coronavirus => http://bit.ly/37M2f1E
(2/12)pic.twitter.com/CEgUCMEpXr
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Head of Absolute Return @Sunny_AM_Paris, ECB Insider, Ex Head of Prop @ EIB, Global Macro Manager @ Ikano Hedge Fund & Head of rates & duration @ Rothschild AM.
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While the 2020 "reflation narrative" of the asset management industry looks OBSOLETE, we have SHIFTED our fund more in line with the disruptive impacts of the #Coronavirus => http://bit.ly/37M2f1E
(2/12)pic.twitter.com/CEgUCMEpXr
1- We are not virologists BUT focused 1st on the ECO. impacts around "Chinese New Year"(http://bit.ly/2UdVp0N ). Latest news to hurt #SENTIMENT:
*Cases UP from 2K to 17k+ in 1 WEEK
*Wuhan mayor said 5m people ESCAPED the city before
*US declared PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY
(3/12)pic.twitter.com/8YG9e4JHNN
2- The #ECONOMIC impacts are clearer:
*Chinese businesses are CLOSING OPERATIONS (80% of 2018 #GDP, 90% of exports, 21 provinces), see APPLE closing all stores
*63 countries RESTRICTING entries of Chinese citizens, with Russia CLOSING its physical border
(4/12)pic.twitter.com/amSP3MH8OD
*40 airlines in 29 countries CANCELLING flights to China (AA, BA, Delta, KLM) => CHINA is now explicitly under EMBARGO (5/12)pic.twitter.com/ziVeEtJbIi
3- #MARKETS impact:
=> DEVASTATING implications on commos with effects of DEFLATION
=> TERM PREMIA to FLATTEN, US 30y to over-perform, #USD to shoot up & FED forced to CUT rates. Buy GOLD as real rates will fall.
(6/12)pic.twitter.com/oRZz4n0zD8
What will be KEY is to watch whether the authorities will regain #confidence fast enough and start re-opening provinces right after the 13th, which is the date they have chosen.
(7/12)
So they have 10 days to turn things around, which includes: (1) Containing the virus (2) Restarting halted factories/provinces (3) Convincing expats to fly back (4) Convincing global airlines that things are OK & countries to stop restricting access to Chinese citizens (8/12)
(5) Big unknowns: Following the US-China conflict, (1) will firms relocate their supply chains ? (2) which are the firms currently struggling because of lack of supply from China? (3) What impact on incoming FDI? (4) Can China still reach its trade deal commitments ? (9/12)
As most announcements were made in the past days, they should hold BEYOND the 13th. Already: •Hubei: Told that the closure would be extended beyond the 13th to an “appropriate extent”. •Tianjin: Businesses and schools are not to reopen until "further notice" (10/12)
We could be wrong : markets sentiment is not deteriorating this morning but Bund and T-notes calls skew >0 + Fed cuts priced in EDs Now, the ELEPHANT that could cushion the blows and re-ignite the “reflation” narrative is clearly coming. (11/12)
Expect a reflationary “bazooka” through a combined CCP/PBoC/FED/ECB Put. QUESTION is will it be SUFFICIENT to offset the economic impacts when it happens.
END
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