The virus could not have hit China at a worst moment: The Chinese New Year and the world's most important yearly "temporary" migration. (2/8)pic.twitter.com/5WdMtNkzJT
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The virus could not have hit China at a worst moment: The Chinese New Year and the world's most important yearly "temporary" migration. (2/8)pic.twitter.com/5WdMtNkzJT
Where 3 billion trips were expected, 2.5Bn by road (3/8)pic.twitter.com/Zt5jqsFeYX
Air passengers had close to doubled in 10 years, with close to 80m flying passengers during the Chinese New Year (4/8)pic.twitter.com/MZz9styLKZ
As the Virus has the same spreading rate ( "R0" about 3,8) as the #SARS pandemic. For cues of economic impacts, it resulted in a dip of 1% of the Chinese GDP & 0.5% in SEA GDP.
The first case was reported in mid-Nov 2002 with a peak towards the end of April 2003.
(5/8)pic.twitter.com/NMEkTo2bMG
What impacts for the markets? Peak to trough, almost all segments were hit by the virus, with defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, utilities and energy outperforming. (6/8)pic.twitter.com/cDAS3JeC7Y
2003 vs 2020? * 2003, SARS pandemic hit in the midst of the global commodity super cycle, China had just joined the WTO and globalization was running in full motion * 2020, the headwinds are bigger, the pandemic is hurting a much weaker economy running at a 30 year low (7/8)
Finally, the A-share market (Mainland China) is now much more exposed to foreign investors and capital flight.
Buy Healthcare and Us duration ; Sell Consumer discretionary such as Vuitton, Lvmh, Pernod Ricard
#globalmacro #finance #economics #economy #investing #markets
(8/8)
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