Etienne de MARSAC

@etiennedemarsac

Head of Absolute Return , ECB Insider, Ex Head of Prop @ EIB, Global Macro Manager @ Ikano Hedge Fund & Head of rates & duration @ Rothschild AM.

Paris, Ile-de-France
Vrijeme pridruživanja: siječanj 2013.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet

    Equities taking a breath through sentiment boosted by liquidity but it s hard to ignore that fundamentals will deteriorate on the long run : rise of default rates coming. = only a one-off effect ? I don’t buy it. Liquidity is not a médecine .

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  4. 3. velj
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  5. 3. velj

    What do you think will happen tonight... ? 2/2

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  6. 3. velj

    Is the sell off on CSI 300 over ? 73% of the index was artificially stopped / Limited down (-10% ). Worth to note that only 4 stocks where > 0 ( all bio / pharma related ) 1/2

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  7. 3. velj
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  8. 3. velj
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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
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  10. 3. velj
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  11. 3. velj
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  12. 3. velj

    Expect a reflationary “bazooka” through a combined CCP/PBoC/FED/ECB Put. QUESTION is will it be SUFFICIENT to offset the economic impacts when it happens. END

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  13. 3. velj

    We could be wrong : markets sentiment is not deteriorating this morning but Bund and T-notes calls skew >0 + Fed cuts priced in EDs Now, the ELEPHANT that could cushion the blows and re-ignite the “reflation” narrative is clearly coming. (11/12)

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  14. 3. velj

    As most announcements were made in the past days, they should hold BEYOND the 13th. Already: •Hubei: Told that the closure would be extended beyond the 13th to an “appropriate extent”. •Tianjin: Businesses and schools are not to reopen until "further notice" (10/12)

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  15. 3. velj

    (5) Big unknowns: Following the US-China conflict, (1) will firms relocate their supply chains ? (2) which are the firms currently struggling because of lack of supply from China? (3) What impact on incoming FDI? (4) Can China still reach its trade deal commitments ? (9/12)

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  16. 3. velj

    So they have 10 days to turn things around, which includes: (1) Containing the virus (2) Restarting halted factories/provinces (3) Convincing expats to fly back (4) Convincing global airlines that things are OK & countries to stop restricting access to Chinese citizens (8/12)

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  17. 3. velj

    What will be KEY is to watch whether the authorities will regain fast enough and start re-opening provinces right after the 13th, which is the date they have chosen. (7/12)

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  18. 3. velj

    3- impact: => DEVASTATING implications on commos with effects of DEFLATION => TERM PREMIA to FLATTEN, US 30y to over-perform, to shoot up & FED forced to CUT rates. Buy GOLD as real rates will fall. (6/12)

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  19. 3. velj

    *40 airlines in 29 countries CANCELLING flights to China (AA, BA, Delta, KLM) => CHINA is now explicitly under EMBARGO (5/12)

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  20. 3. velj

    2- The impacts are clearer: *Chinese businesses are CLOSING OPERATIONS (80% of 2018 , 90% of exports, 21 provinces), see APPLE closing all stores *63 countries RESTRICTING entries of Chinese citizens, with Russia CLOSING its physical border (4/12)

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