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Prikvačeni tweet
This looks like a BLACK SWAN. #2019-nCoV is "more of a BLACK SWAN than the GFC and the Great Recession of 2008" - MOODY'S Report, Jan. 30th. (1/12)pic.twitter.com/RNknyLSHwG
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Etienne de MARSAC proslijedio/la je Tweet
A rather sobering
@FT editorial on the#coronavirus and de-globalization. https://www.ft.com/content/9393cb52-4435-11ea-a43a-c4b328d9061c …#economy#markets#deglobalization#china#growth#coronaviruschinapic.twitter.com/VE32Q944zn
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Expect a reflationary “bazooka” through a combined CCP/PBoC/FED/ECB Put. QUESTION is will it be SUFFICIENT to offset the economic impacts when it happens. END
#assetmanagement#investment#finance#economics#geopolitics#politics#researchPrikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
We could be wrong : markets sentiment is not deteriorating this morning but Bund and T-notes calls skew >0 + Fed cuts priced in EDs Now, the ELEPHANT that could cushion the blows and re-ignite the “reflation” narrative is clearly coming. (11/12)
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As most announcements were made in the past days, they should hold BEYOND the 13th. Already: •Hubei: Told that the closure would be extended beyond the 13th to an “appropriate extent”. •Tianjin: Businesses and schools are not to reopen until "further notice" (10/12)
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(5) Big unknowns: Following the US-China conflict, (1) will firms relocate their supply chains ? (2) which are the firms currently struggling because of lack of supply from China? (3) What impact on incoming FDI? (4) Can China still reach its trade deal commitments ? (9/12)
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So they have 10 days to turn things around, which includes: (1) Containing the virus (2) Restarting halted factories/provinces (3) Convincing expats to fly back (4) Convincing global airlines that things are OK & countries to stop restricting access to Chinese citizens (8/12)
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What will be KEY is to watch whether the authorities will regain
#confidence fast enough and start re-opening provinces right after the 13th, which is the date they have chosen. (7/12)Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
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#MARKETS impact: => DEVASTATING implications on commos with effects of DEFLATION => TERM PREMIA to FLATTEN, US 30y to over-perform,#USD to shoot up & FED forced to CUT rates. Buy GOLD as real rates will fall. (6/12)pic.twitter.com/oRZz4n0zD8Ovo je potencijalno osjetljiv multimedijski sadržaj. Saznajte više
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*40 airlines in 29 countries CANCELLING flights to China (AA, BA, Delta, KLM) => CHINA is now explicitly under EMBARGO (5/12)pic.twitter.com/ziVeEtJbIi
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2- The
#ECONOMIC impacts are clearer: *Chinese businesses are CLOSING OPERATIONS (80% of 2018#GDP, 90% of exports, 21 provinces), see APPLE closing all stores *63 countries RESTRICTING entries of Chinese citizens, with Russia CLOSING its physical border (4/12)pic.twitter.com/amSP3MH8ODOvo je potencijalno osjetljiv multimedijski sadržaj. Saznajte više
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1- We are not virologists BUT focused 1st on the ECO. impacts around "Chinese New Year"(http://bit.ly/2UdVp0N ). Latest news to hurt
#SENTIMENT: *Cases UP from 2K to 17k+ in 1 WEEK *Wuhan mayor said 5m people ESCAPED the city before *US declared PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY (3/12)pic.twitter.com/8YG9e4JHNNOvo je potencijalno osjetljiv multimedijski sadržaj. Saznajte više
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While the 2020 "reflation narrative" of the asset management industry looks OBSOLETE, we have SHIFTED our fund more in line with the disruptive impacts of the
#Coronavirus => http://bit.ly/37M2f1E (2/12)pic.twitter.com/CEgUCMEpXrOvo je potencijalno osjetljiv multimedijski sadržaj. Saznajte više
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Through the so called « macro prudential policies », Central Banks have been working hard to preserve financial stability. The rise of zombie corporates with an ICR < 2 needs however to be adressed...for financial stability reasons.
#unicorns#Weworkhttps://twitter.com/realvision/status/1223002857043103748 …
0:43Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
I was honored to be interviewed by Roger Hirst in RV studio for a full length debate on the « everything bubble ». Is valuation still a relevant concept in an environment of
#centralbanks Thanks to all the RV team for the end-up product@RaoulGMI@chrisollari@Ollari_Macrohttps://twitter.com/realvision/status/1223038034741989376 …
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