Etienne de MARSAC

@etiennedemarsac

Head of Absolute Return , ECB Insider, Ex Head of Prop @ EIB, Global Macro Manager @ Ikano Hedge Fund & Head of rates & duration @ Rothschild AM.

Paris, Ile-de-France
Vrijeme pridruživanja: siječanj 2013.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet

    This looks like a BLACK SWAN. #2019-nCoV is "more of a BLACK SWAN than the GFC and the Great Recession of 2008" - MOODY'S Report, Jan. 30th. (1/12)

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  7. Expect a reflationary “bazooka” through a combined CCP/PBoC/FED/ECB Put. QUESTION is will it be SUFFICIENT to offset the economic impacts when it happens. END

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  8. We could be wrong : markets sentiment is not deteriorating this morning but Bund and T-notes calls skew >0 + Fed cuts priced in EDs Now, the ELEPHANT that could cushion the blows and re-ignite the “reflation” narrative is clearly coming. (11/12)

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  9. As most announcements were made in the past days, they should hold BEYOND the 13th. Already: •Hubei: Told that the closure would be extended beyond the 13th to an “appropriate extent”. •Tianjin: Businesses and schools are not to reopen until "further notice" (10/12)

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  10. (5) Big unknowns: Following the US-China conflict, (1) will firms relocate their supply chains ? (2) which are the firms currently struggling because of lack of supply from China? (3) What impact on incoming FDI? (4) Can China still reach its trade deal commitments ? (9/12)

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  11. So they have 10 days to turn things around, which includes: (1) Containing the virus (2) Restarting halted factories/provinces (3) Convincing expats to fly back (4) Convincing global airlines that things are OK & countries to stop restricting access to Chinese citizens (8/12)

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  12. What will be KEY is to watch whether the authorities will regain fast enough and start re-opening provinces right after the 13th, which is the date they have chosen. (7/12)

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  13. 3- impact: => DEVASTATING implications on commos with effects of DEFLATION => TERM PREMIA to FLATTEN, US 30y to over-perform, to shoot up & FED forced to CUT rates. Buy GOLD as real rates will fall. (6/12)

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  14. *40 airlines in 29 countries CANCELLING flights to China (AA, BA, Delta, KLM) => CHINA is now explicitly under EMBARGO (5/12)

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  15. 2- The impacts are clearer: *Chinese businesses are CLOSING OPERATIONS (80% of 2018 , 90% of exports, 21 provinces), see APPLE closing all stores *63 countries RESTRICTING entries of Chinese citizens, with Russia CLOSING its physical border (4/12)

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  16. 1- We are not virologists BUT focused 1st on the ECO. impacts around "Chinese New Year"(). Latest news to hurt : *Cases UP from 2K to 17k+ in 1 WEEK *Wuhan mayor said 5m people ESCAPED the city before *US declared PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY (3/12)

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  17. While the 2020 "reflation narrative" of the asset management industry looks OBSOLETE, we have SHIFTED our fund more in line with the disruptive impacts of the => (2/12)

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  18. 31. sij

    Through the so called « macro prudential policies », Central Banks have been working hard to preserve financial stability. The rise of zombie corporates with an ICR < 2 needs however to be adressed...for financial stability reasons.

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  19. 31. sij

    I was honored to be interviewed by Roger Hirst in RV studio for a full length debate on the « everything bubble ». Is valuation still a relevant concept in an environment of Thanks to all the RV team for the end-up product

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  20. 30. sij
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