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My avatar is Usir (Osiris). The Lord of Silence. Knowing when to draw inference, and when to remain silent (epoché) - is the key to fortress wisdom. Hence the tag line of ethical skepticism: 𝙚𝙥𝙤𝙘𝙝𝙚́ 𝙫𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙪𝙖𝙧𝙙𝙨 𝙜𝙣𝙤𝙨𝙞𝙨
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This aged very very very very very well.https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1272230170997506048 …
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Ethical Skeptic Retweeted
If I could I would nominate you for a Nobel peace prize.
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Ethical Skeptic Retweeted
You totally called it before it happened!
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Ethical Skeptic Retweeted
Amazing Literally, 65% of the reported covid by CDC this week occurred more than four weeks ago. Deaths continue a downward trend, while it appears on worldometers & counters that there was an increase this week. Note: There’s 50k backlogged unexpected deaths to report. https://twitter.com/ethicalskeptic/status/1282058004096049158 …pic.twitter.com/dgJ9Vs4dUZ
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Ethical Skeptic Retweeted
Top row: Deaths reported publicly by week West to East: Provisional death counts by CDC when death occurred, columns representing the week when CDC added them. Color striping indicates a way to track trends based reporting week. First red = 1st week of data, Orange = 2nd, etc.pic.twitter.com/5fxOIqzJqp
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Ethical Skeptic Retweeted
Skeptic is amazing. I find this a bit easier to consume. ~3K very old deaths added to the total last week. Totally inflating the numbers. Would love to know why. https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1281778023935737858?s=21 …https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1281778023935737858 …
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What is occurring right now is, the reserve CDC date-cataloged deaths, which are not yet reported by the states, are being reported by the states over time (hence the Gompertz arrival). While this might be academically/bureaucratically proper, it is morally & ethically bankrupt.pic.twitter.com/QfZ90mm8rs
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This CDC supralag addition fattened the blue curve a bit, but as we cited last week, still lacks power to overcome the deficits in fatalities we are now experiencing. We are still carrying lockdown fatalities as well, and they will grow into the future. Do not be deceived.pic.twitter.com/Abdd2ZGqvJ
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CDC added 18,693 cases beyond our most conservative lag curve to date. Then stated we're close to end of pandemic. Appears to be a backlog clearing & one-time event? Two things 1. At negative fatalities vs history 2. Reserve of 50,295 fatalities exists for legacy data launderingpic.twitter.com/2TAwqAppKw
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Well sure enough, they started harvesting this untapped reserve of old CDC excess fatalities and lockdown fatalities while I was gone. And, right on cue... 28 days on the nose... we get our long awaited fatality rise. Viruses, are both punctual & observant of national borders.pic.twitter.com/DUBmfFurZY
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Alright. Back at my home airport. An intense trip.
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Ethical Skeptic Retweeted
"The difference between pandemic and panic is 'dem'" might be the best line on twitter ever.
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Alright... packing to head to the airport and assist this new client to prepare for the next/upcoming national disaster. Not sure of my schedule for this week - might not be on laptop and/or in WiFi range for a bit. No panic. Deliberate in your yes, your no and I do not know.
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Finally, linear trends & off-day drops are what one sees in a workshop production log. Not natural systems. This US case arrival form is exhibiting heavy workshop production dynamics. Notice how the surge is artificial in its movement compared to the remainder of the pandemic.pic.twitter.com/CDcs1ZAHdE
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209 fatalities in this day when the legacy data harvesting workcenters are shut down. Is this an argument that possibly 209 is the 'real fatality number?' Perilously close to end of season arguments.pic.twitter.com/fFb2RgqGo3
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As we examine Dwell Time, we see that it is a combination of both longer stays, as well as persons coming in for other procedures and being converted to Covid hospitalization by a test... (AB? PCR?). Given this we should be at 65,000 "hospitalized Covid patients" in no time.pic.twitter.com/kKkUIlqF9V
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Accordingly, today we note the holiday drop. Fatality increase the last 7 days = 0% and we are 2 days away from the 'wait 28 days' hypothesis test point. Hospital admissions are only rising at 40% the rate of increased census.
So a LOT of this hospitalization is Dwell Time.pic.twitter.com/VU8iMR7XpO
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Well, no USAFacts update today. So, we'll cite those counties which compose this surge in cases since 9 Jun policy change in how cases are collected. Hot 100 counties compose 60% of our pandemic, & only 52 counties from this group, of all 3144 US counties are actually rising.pic.twitter.com/Ly7bJJRUiG
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The two most important charts of Covid-19. The difference between pandemic and panic is 'dem' two charts.pic.twitter.com/wes6OskCQH
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